My Last Post for the Year – Predictions for the Global Payments Industry in 2017

The Global Payments Industry enters 2017..

It is not without reason that the payments industry lies at the heart of the FinTech boom. Across the globe, hundreds of startups are vying to provide digital services across the complex payments spectrum. Players ranging from Smartphone manufacturers, FinTechs,Banks and Retailers are all players in this ecosystem.Added to this the payments landscape across the globe is experiencing massive change driven by technology and regulatory mandates. Please find my take on the top five trends on this dynamic industry as we begin 2017, which truly promises to be a watershed year for the industry.

                                                         Image Credit – MasterCard

Trend #1 Mobile Payments volume to surge in 2017

By 2019, global consumer mobile payment volumes are expected to surpass 1 trillion US dollars [1] – this is a massive increase from just 450 billion US dollars in 2017.

The growing popularity of alternative payment modes like Mobile Wallets (e.g Apple Pay, Chase and Android Pay) are driving increased volumes across both open loop and closed loop payments. Couple this with in-app payments (e.g Uber) as well as Banking providers with their own Digital Wallets will step up their game only driving further adoption.

Retailers like Walmart, Nordstrom and Tesco have already started offering more convenient in store payments. At the same time, mobile commerce has matured as smartphone manufacturers have started to create devices with larger screens and payment companies have added one-click buy buttons in order to remove the friction of shopping on mobile phones.

This trend is being clearly seen across all forms of consumer and merchant payments. This is owed to the convenience of making these payments often at the click of a button. This trend will only continue to accelerate in 2017 as smartphone manufacturers continue to make devices that have more onscreen real estate. This will drive more mobile commerce. With IoT technology taking center stage, the day is not long off when connected devices (e.g. wearables) make their own payments.

A smoother and friction less consumer payment experience is what is driving adoption across all of these modes. It is not just about convenience (with a range of stored user preferences) but also comfort (a range of analytics that provide integration with the users other banking products). Thus, providing a more timely and integrated experience.

Trend #2 Payment Providers will rethink their business models

Across the globe, national governments and regulatory authorities are beginning to take note of the fact that they need to unshackle banking data from the incumbents and provide access to other service providers. The intention is to change archaic business models. Access to customer information and transaction data will enable the creation of new business services like with the FinTechs.

On the institutional side, provisions permitting cross border acquiring as well as capping of interchange fees have been passed. This will enable third part processors to access consumer account information thus enabling them to create new products. E..g. Offer banking services, contextual offers etc. This will lead to banks and payment providers building products that provide value added services on the data that they already own.

With the passage of the second revision of the pathbreaking Directive on Payment Services Directive (PSD-2), the European Parliament has adopted the legal foundation of the creation of a EU-wide single payments area (SEPA).  While the goal of the PSD is to establish a set of modern, digital industry rules for all payment services in the European Union; it has significant ramifications for the financial services industry as it will surely current business models & foster new areas of competition. The key message from a regulatory standpoint is that consumer data can be opened up to other players in the payment value chain. This will lead to a clamor by players to own more of the customers data with a view to selling business services (e.g. accurate credit scoring, access to mortgage & other consumer loans and mutual funds etc) on that information.

Trend #3 Global Payment infrastructure moves to Real Time

The demand for fast payments from both consumers and corporates has led to about 40+ countries implementing immediate payment infrastructures that are highly secure yet speedy. The European Union leads the way with Denmark (Realtime 24/7), Norway and the UK (FPS) implementing such systems. The US and Canada have also begun making moves on this front as well.

The implications of this are two fold. One, this will drive down the already decreasing percentage of cash payments in the system while – two – increasing the ability of providers and non banks to provide value added services on the transaction data which is more readily available. At the same time, expect more regulatory focus on moving fraud and compliance programs into a real time mode.

Trend #4 Payment Providers will begin resembling Bay area startups

This one is a little provocative but the high tech trend towards digitization is clear. Payment technology is the eye of the storm – from a FinTech standpoint. This trend will accelerate in 2017 with the easy availability of open source technology in four critical areas – Big Data, Cloud Computing, Predictive Analytics & Blockchain.

Big Data will heavily be leveraged (on Private or Public Cloud based infrastructure) to perform real-time Predictive analytics on payments data in motion as well as at rest. Critical capabilities such as a Single View of Customer/Payment/Fraud & Customer Journey Management etc will all depend on Big Data. Blockchain technology (and its attractiveness in terms of removing the middleman while providing transparency & security) will continue to be prototyped across many different areas.

Trend #5 Cyber Security, Risk and Compliance will remain board level concerns

If there is one common thread across the entire payments value chain – Merchants, Acquirers, Gateways, Schemes, Banks, Corporates etc – it is the risk of cyber attacks. Though EMV based chip technology has reduced point of sales fraud, the trend in cyberattacks is only on the upsurge. Techniques like tokenization – have been developed to help both the schemes as well as providers of digital wallets etc reduce their compliance risk. As corporate payments and other B2C payments move to becoming more cross border – the focus on Anti Money Laundering and Fraud detection will only increase. The need of the hour is to deploy realtime analytics and Big Data techniques to tackle these at an application level.

Big Data Counters Payment Card Fraud (1/3)…

Conclusion..

As payments services firms begin 2017, they will need to transition to a customer oriented mindset. They will being pushed to share data through open standards, become highly digitized in interacting with consumers and will begin leveraging the vast internal data (about customers, their transaction histories, financial preferences, operational insights etc) to create new products or services or to enhance the product experience.

References..

[1]  Mobile Payment Volumes Forecast – https://www.statista.com/statistics/226530/mobile-payment-transaction-volume-forecast/

The Three Habits of Highly Effective Real Time Enterprises…

All I do is sit at home and watch Netflix. ” – Kylie Irving

The Power of Real Time

Anyone who has used Netflix to watch a movie or used Uber to hail a ride knows how simple, time efficient, inexpensive and seamless it is to do either. Chances are that most users of Netflix and Uber would never again use a physical video store or a taxi service unless they did not have a choice. Thus it should not come as a surprise that within a short span of a few years, these companies have acquired millions of delighted customers using their products (which are just apps) while developing market capitalizations of tens of billions of dollars.

As of early 2016, Netflix had about 60 million subscribers[1] and is finding significant success in producing its own content thus continuing to grab market share from the established players like NBC, Fox and CBS. Most Netflix customers opt to ditch Cable and are choosing to stream content in real time across a variety of devices.

Uber is nothing short of a game changer in the ride sharing business. Not just in busy cities but also in underserved suburban areas, Uber services save plenty of time and money in enabling riders to hail cabs. In congested metro areas, Uber also provides near instantaneous rides for a premium which motivates more drivers to service riders. As someone, who has used Uber in almost every continent in the world, it is no surprise that as of 2016, Uber dominates in terms of market coverage, operating in 400 cities in 70+ countries.[2]

What is the common theme in ordering a cab using Uber or a viewing a movie on Netflix ?

Answer – Both services are available at the click of a button, they’re lightning quick and constantly build on their understanding of your tastes, ratings and preferences. In short, they are Real Time products.

Why is Real Time such a powerful business capability?

In the Digital Economy, the ability to interact intelligently with consumers in real time is what makes possible the ability to create new business models and to drive growth in existing lines of business.

So, what do Real Time Enterprises do differently

What underpins a real time enterprise are three critical factors or foundational capabilities as shown in the below illustration. For any enterprise to be considered real time, the presence of these three components is what decides the pace of consumer adoption. Real time capabilities are part business innovation and part technology.

Let us examine these…

#1 Real Time Businesses possess a superior Technology Strategy

First and foremost, business groups must be able to define a vision for where they would like their products and services to be able to do to acquire younger and more dynamic consumers.

As companies adopt new business models, the technologies that support them must also change along with the teams that deliver them. IT departments have to move to more of a service model while delivering agile platforms and technology architectures for business lines to develop products around.

Why Digital Disruption is the Cure for the Common Data Center..

It needs to be kept in mind that these new approaches should be incubated slowly and gradually. They must almost always be business or usecase driven at first.

#2 Real Time Enterprises are extremely smart about how they leverage data

The second capability is an ability to break down data silos in an organization. Most organizations have no idea of what to do with all the data they generate. Sure, they use a fraction of it to perform business operations but beyond that most of this data is simply let go. As a consequence they fail to view their customer as a dynamic yet unified entity. Thus, they have no idea as to how to market more products or to estimate the risk being run on their behalf etc. The ability to add  is a growing emphasis on the importance of the role of the infrastructure within service orientation. As the common factor that is present throughout an organization, the networking infrastructure is potentially the ideal tool for breaking down the barriers that exist between the infrastructure, the applications and the business. Consequently, adding greater intelligence into the network is one way of achieving the levels of virtualization and automation that are necessary in a real-time operation.

Across Industries, Big Data Is Now the Engine of Digital Innovation..

#3 Real Time Enterprises use Predictive Analytics and they automate the hell out of every aspect of their business

Real time enterprises get the fact that using only Business Intelligence (BI) dashboards is largely passe. BI implementations base their insights on data that is typically stale, (even by days). BI operates in a highly siloed manner based on long cycles of data extraction, transformation, indexing etc.

However, if products are to be delivered over mobile and other non traditional channels, then BI is ineffective at providing just in time analytics that can drive an understanding of a dynamic consumers wants and needs. The Real Time enterprise demands that workers at many levels ranging from line of business managers to executives have fresh, high quality and actionable information on which they can base complex yet high quality business decisions. These insights are only enabled by Data Science and Business Automation. When deployed strategically – these techniques can scale to enormous volumes of data and help reason over them reducing manual costs.  They can take on business problems that can’t be managed manually because of the huge amount of data that must be processed.

Why Big Data & Advanced Analytics are Strategic Corporate Assets..

Conclusion..

Real time Enterprises do a lot of things right. They constantly experiment with creating new and existing business capabilities with a view to making them appealing to a rapidly changing clientele. They refine these using constant feedback loops and create cutting edge technology stacks that dominate the competitive landscape. Enterprises need to make the move to becoming Real time.

Neither Netflix nor Uber are sitting on their laurels. Netflix (which discontinued mail in DVDs and moved to an online only model a few years ago) continues to expand globally betting that the convenience of the internet will eventually turn it into a major content producer. Uber is prototyping self driving cars in Pittsburgh and intends to rollout its own fleet of self driving vehicles thus replacing it’s current 1.5 million drivers and also beginning a food delivery business around urban centers eventually[4].

Sure, the ordinary organization is no Netflix or Uber and when a journey such as the one to real time capabilities is embarked on, things can and will go wrong in this process. However, the cost of continuing with business as usual can be incalculable over the next few years.  There is always a startup or a competitor that wants to deliver what you do at much lower cost and at a lightning fast clip. Just ask Blockbuster and the local taxi cab company.

References

[1] Netflix Statistics 2016 – Statistica.com

[2] Fool.com “Just how dominant is Uber” – http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/05/24/lyft-vs-uber-just-how-dominant-is-uber-ridesharing.aspx

[3] Expanded Ramblings – “Uber Statistics as of Oct 2016” http://expandedramblings.com/index.php/uber-statistics/

[4] Uber Self driving cars debut in Pittsburgh – “http://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-ubers-new-self-driving-cars-in-pittsburgh-1473847202”

What Blockchain can do for The Internet Of Things..

Blockchain and IoT are a marriage made in heaven. Blockchain can enable & augment a variety of application scenarios and usecases for the IoT. No longer are such possibilities too futuristic – as we will discuss in this post.

IoT meets Blockchain..

Blockchain and Internet Of Things (IoT) are easily the two biggest buzzwords in technology at the moment. The IoT encompasses the world of sensors,moving objects like vehicles & really any device that has embedded electronics  to communicate with the outside world – typically over an IP protocol.

Combine that with Blockchain – a distributed ledger architecture (DLT) pattern.Combining the two can facilitate the entire lifecycle of IoT devices & applications and prove to be the glue for business processes to act on these events. Consider the following scenario – a private blockchain for a driverless connected car that will enable secure and realtime interactions from the car starting with car startup, driver authentication, smart contracts to exchange insurance & maintenance service information and realtime location info to track safety.

Blockchain based distributed ledger technology (DLT) fills in five critical gaps in IoT..

  1. In such typical scenarios as the above, a Blockchain based distributed ledger provides the trust, record of ownership, transparency and the overall (decentralized) communication backbone for IoT.
  2. It needs to be noted that over the years specific IoT communities will develop their own private blockchains that can store transactions in a highly secure manner for their specific applications. IoT architectures that relied on centralized servers to collect and store data will be able to write to local ledgers that will synch with other localized ledgers to maintain a single yet secure copy of the truth.
  3. All IoT transactions on the Blockchain will be timestamped thus ensuring that they are available essentially – for posterity.
  4. Next up, the true innovation of Blockchain – digital agreements or Smart Contracts. Smart contracts can then be applied on the data in the blockchain to enforce business conditions on the IoT interactions.
  5. Finally, one of the big knocks against IoT has been the relative lack of security standards. Blockchain due to its background on high end cryptography actually helps with IoT security. A future post will discuss such a reference architecture.

With that background, let us consider low hanging usecases across key IoT applications in verticals.

blockchain_iot

  1. Industrial Manufacturing – The manufacturing industry is moving to an entirely virtual world across its lifecycle, ranging from product development, customer demand monitoring to production to inventory management. As devices & systems become more interactive and intelligent, the blockchain can serve as a plant level, regional level and global supply chain level ledger. This will dramatically cut costs and drive more efficient just in time (JIT) processes enabling better usage of plant capacity and improved operational efficiencies.
  2. Connected and Driverless VehiclesThe Connected Vehicle enables the car or truck to behave as a giant Smart App. With the passing of every year, vehicles have more automatic features builtin – ranging from navigation, roadside assistance etc. Blockchain will enable these devices to be tracked on the digital mesh thus enabling easy inter vehicle communication as well as automatic tracking of fleet insurance policies, vehicle registration renewals etc
  3. Transportation – IoT + Blockchain = Connected Transportation. A range of scenarios can be imagined around a connected mesh of vehicles that exchange everything from traffic information to avoiding gridlocks & bottlenecks. Extending this to global trade, this mesh can incorporate shipping, air freight as well as ground transportation to track shipments.
  4. Public Infrastructure & Smart CitiesSmart devices are already being used to track the health of bridges, roads, power grids etc. Blockchains can be used to interconnect these to share efficiencies and to conduct maintenance, forecast usage trends for power usage, pollution etc. Another key area of usage would be to help remote areas such as forests to monitor natural incidents and to prevent catastrophic occurrences like large scale forest fires or farm infestations by blight etc.
  5. Financial services and insurance – Banks could use Blockchain backbone to track IoT enabled devices like ATM machines, remote tellers to conduct maintenance. Insurance companies which have already started deploying drones to verify property claims in remote areas can use the Blockchain to validate and verify claims.
  6. Home and Commercial Realestate management – Using sensors deployed on both homes and commercial buildings helps with automated home and office monitoring. The usecases will diverge across both areas but many can be built on having a foundational distributed ledger capability.
  7. Smart Contracts –  Blockchain based cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin enable two business capabilities at a high level – a) transfer of cryptocurrency and b) business rules that specify when the payout has to happen – typically once conditions that have been met – which satisfy fulfillment of contractual terms.
    These rules are termed “Smart Contracts’. Smart contracts are applicable across all of these business areas and can be used to keep track of business rules and take actions based on thresholds that have been met or have been breached. E.g A driverless vehicle that has failed an inspection can be grounded, non payment of home owners insurance can trigger an alert to the homeowners housing society etc.
  8. Retail –  Retailers are already using IoT devices and endpoints to help across the business lifecycle – ranging from the shop floor, to tracking product delivery to store, to understand their customer traffic patterns, wearables etc. The vision of the Connected Store with IoT enabled shelves, an ability for customers to perform more actions using smartphone apps to reducing checkout times with self checkout etc are all taking place. The Blockchain can augment all of these usecases by providing the critical link between retailer and consumer in a way that it automates away the middle man- be it a credit card issuer, or a  central server. For instance consumers can store their product preferences, sizes in a Blockchain and the retailer can access these in a seamless and secure manner.

There still exist large technology shortcomings..

Finally, it needs to be mentioned that there still exist critical gaps in Blockchain technology – whether one considers the public Blockchain on which Bitcoin is built or technologies like Etherium – in terms of interoperability, security standards, throughput and mature developer tooling. These will need to be worked on over the next few quarters before we see production grade IoT deployments on Blockchains.

Conclusion..

The potential ability of Blockchain to ultimately enable secure, global & decentralized communication across billions of IoT endpoints is very promising. As Blockchain matures and makes it way into the enterprise, it likely to impact many aspects of business operations and strategies in the coming years.

My take on Gartner’s Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017

We’re only at the very, very beginning of this next generation of computing and I think that every industry leader will be the ones that transforms first. I don’t care what industry you’re talking about” -Kim Stevenson, CIO, Intel, Feb 2016

Gartner Research rolled out their “Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017” report a few weeks ago. My goal for this blogpost is to introduce these trends to the reader and to examine the potential impact of their recommendations from an enterprise standpoint.

gartner_trends_2017

                                                              Gartner’s Strategic Trends for 2017 

# 1: AI & Advanced Machine Learning

Gartner rightly forecasts that AI (Artificial Intelligence) and Advanced Machine Learning will continue their march into daily applications run by the Fortune 1000. CIOs are coming to realize that most business problems are primarily data challenges. The rapid maturation of scalable processing techniques allows us to extract richer insights from data. What we commonly refer to as Machine Learning – a combination of econometrics, machine learning, statistics, visualization, and computer science – helps extracts valuable business insights hiding in data and builds operational systems to deliver that value.

Deep Machine Learning involves the art of discovering data insights in a human-like pattern. We are, thus, clearly witnessing the advent of modern data applications. These applications will leverage a range of advanced techniques such as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) encompassing techniques such as neural networks, natural language processing and deep learning.

Implications for industry CIOs – Modern data applications understand their environment (e.g customer preferences and other detailed data insights) to be able to predict business trends in real time & to take action based on them to drive revenues and decrease business risk. These techniques will enable applications and devices to operate in an even more smarter manner while saving companies enormous amounts of money on manual costs.

http://www.vamsitalkstech.com/?p=407

# 2: Intelligent Apps

Personal assistants, e.g Apple Siri, Microsoft Cortona in the category of virtual personal assistants (VPAs), have begun transforming everyday business processes easier for their users. VPAs represent the intersection of AI, conversational interfaces and integration into business processes. In 2017, these will begin improving customer experiences for the largest Fortune 100 enterprises. On the more personal front, Home VPAs will rapidly evolve & become even more smarter as their algorithms get more capable and understanding of their own environments.  We will see increased application of smart agents in diverse fields like financial services,healthcare, telecom and media.

Implications for industry CIOs – Get ready to invest in intelligent applications in the corporate intranet to start with.

# 3: Intelligent Things

The rise of the IoT has only been well documented but couple AI with massive data processing capabilities – that makes up Intelligent Things which can interact with humans in new ways. You can add a whole category of things around transportation (self driving cars, connected cars) and Robots that perform key processes in industrial manufacturing, drones etc.

Implications for industry CIOs – These intelligent devices will increasingly begin communicating with their environments in a manner that will encourage collaboration in a range of business scenarios. 2017 should begin the trend of these devices communicating with each other to form the eponymous ‘Digital Mesh’.

# 4: Virtual & Augmented Reality

Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are technologies that are beginning to completely change the way humans interact with one another and with intelligent systems that make up the Digital Mesh. Pokemon GO & Oculus Rift were the first hugely successful consumer facing AR applications – debuting in 2016. Uses of these technologies will include gamification (to improve customer engagement with products and services), other customer & employee facing applications etc. While both these technologies enable us to view the world in different ways – AR is remarkable in its ability to add to our current reality. BMW’s subsidiary Mini has actually developed a driving goggle with AR technology[1].

Implications for industry CIOs – This one is still on the drawing board for most verticals but it does make sense to invest in areas like gamification and in engaging with remote employees using AR.

# 5: Digital Twin

A Digital twin is a software personification of an Intelligent Thing or system. In the manufacturing industry, digital twins can be setup to function as proxies of things like sensors and gauges, Coordinate Measuring Machines, lasers, vision systems, and white light scanning [2]. The wealth of data being gathered on the shop floor will ensure that Digital twins will be used to reduce costs and increase innovation. Data science will soon make it’s way into the shop floor to enable the collection of insights from these software proxies.

Implications for industry CIOs – Invest in Digital capabilities that serve as proxies for physical things.

# 6: Blockchain

The term Blockchain is derived from a design pattern that describes a chain of data blocks that map to individual transactions. Each transaction that is conducted in the real world (e.g a Bitcoin wire transfer) results in the creation of new blocks in the chain. The new blocks so created are done so by calculating a cryptographic hash function of its previous block thus constructing a chain of blocks – hence the name.

Blockchain is a distributed ledger (DLT) which allows global participants to conduct secure transactions that could be of any type – banking, music purchases, legal contracts, supply chain transactions etc. Blockchain will transform multiple industries in the years to come. Bitcoin is the first application of Blockchain.

How the Blockchain will lead disruption across industry..(5/5)

Implications for industry CIOs – Begin expanding internal knowledge on Blockchain and as to how it can potentially augment or disrupt your vertical industry.

# 7: Conversational Systems

Mobile applications first begun forcing the need for enterprises to begin supporting multiple channels of interaction with their consumers. For example Banking now requires an ability to engage consumers in a seamless experience across an average of four to five channels – Mobile, eBanking, Call Center, Kiosk etc. Conversational Systems take these interactions to the next level and enable humans to communicate with a wide range of Intelligent Things using a range of channels – speech, touch, vision etc.

Implications for industry CIOs – Every touch point matters, and those leading the smart agent transformation should constantly be asking how organizations are removing friction and enhancing the experience for every customer regardless of where they are in the journey.

# 8: Mesh App and Service Architecture

This one is still from last year. The Digital Mesh leads to an interconnected information deluge which encompasses classical IoT endpoints along with audio, video & social data streams. The creation of these smart services will further depend on the vertical industries that these products serve as well as requirements for the platforms that host them. E.g industrial automation, remote healthcare, public transportation, connected cars, home automation etc.The micro services architecture approach which combines the notion of autonomous, cooperative yet loosely coupled applications built as a conglomeration of business focused services is a natural fit for the Digital Mesh.  The most important additive and consideration to micro services based architectures in the age of the Digital Mesh is what I’d like to term –  Analytics Everywhere.

Implications for industry CIOs -The mesh app will require a microservices based architecture which supports multichannel & multi device solutions.

# 9: Digital Technology Platforms

The onset of Digital Architectures in enterprise businesses implies the ability to drive continuous micro level interactions with global consumers/customers/clients/stockholders or patients depending on the vertical you operate in. More information on the core building blocks of Digital Technology Platforms at the below blogpost.

Implications for industry CIOs

http://www.vamsitalkstech.com/?m=201609

# 10: Adaptive Security Architecture

The evolution of the intelligent digital mesh and digital technology platforms and application architectures means that security has to become fluid and adaptive.Traditional solutions cannot handle this challenge which is exacerbated by the expectation that in an IoT & DM world, data flows will be multidirectional across a grid of application endpoints.

Implications for industry CIOs -Expect to find applications in 2016 and beyond incorporating Deep Learning and Real Time Analytics into their core security design with a view to analyzing large scale data at a very low latency. Security in the IoT environment is particularly challenging. Security teams need to work with application, solution and enterprise architects to build security into the overall DevOps process to create a DevSecOps model.

Conclusion..

In this year’s edition, Gartner are clearly forecasting the future ten years out from a mass market standpoint. As we cross this chasm slowly over the next ten years, we will see that IoT begin to emerge and take center stage in every industry vertical. Digital transformation will happen on apps created for and brought together for Smart Agents on the Device Mesh.

These apps will gradually become autonomous, data intensive,server-less, hopefully secure and location independent (data center or cloud). The app can be a sensor or a connected car or a digital twin for a manufacturing technician. So, it’s not just about a single app sitting in a data center or the cloud or on the machine itself. These smart agent apps will data driven, components of a larger mesh, interconnected connected using open interfaces, and resident at the places where it’s optimal for realtime analytics. This may seem like science fiction for the Fortune 1000 enterprise but it is manifest reality at the web scale innovators. The industry will have no choice but to follow.

References..

[1] Cramer – “A lesson in Augmented Realities” –  http://cramer.com/story/the-difference-between-ar-and-vr/

[2] Dr.Michael Grieves – “Digital Twin: Manufacturing Excellence through Virtual Factory Replication” – http://innovate.fit.edu/plm/documents/doc_mgr/912/1411.0_Digital_Twin_White_Paper_Dr_Grieves.pdf